Friday, November 11, 2011

Looking at Mobekimasu's competition

Next week on the 16th, the Mobekimasu Busu ni Naranai Tetsugaku single will release, so let's take a look at some of the other artists releasing that same day.

I took at a look at every artist releasing on the same day (not including those releasing albums because Oricon separates album and single releases to two different charts) and listed major threats and other notables in alphabetical order below. I didn't list every artist here to save this post from being longer than it already is.

In parenthesis is extra information about the artists, including recent sales figures. Bolded artists are the ones to really worry about.

- 2NE1 (K-pop group. Their first official non-digital Japanese single. Their JP mini-album sold 26k and full length album sold 5k. Hard to tell if they pose a threat, but with Japan's k-pop phase, it's possible.)

- AAA (Avex group. Usually sells about 45k. Definitely a threat.)

- Acid Black Cherry (Rock soloist; usually sells about 45k. Definitely a threat.)

 - (A female idol group. Usually sells less than 1000, so not a threat, but yay idols.)

- Do As Infinity (Male and female duo. Usually sells about 10k. Not a threat.)

- Eriko Imai (Former member of girl group SPEED; last single was 2006 under a different name. No sales figures found. Probably not a threat, but listing just in case).

- FUNKY MONKEY BABIES (Guy group. Their albums sell well, but their latest singles haven't came close to that. Usually sells about 20k. Probably not a threat.)

- girl next door (An electro-pop group. Usually sells about 5k. Not a threat.)

 - GLAY (Popular rock band. I couldn't find any info on their latest single (maybe a special release?) but it's not in their top 50th highest selling singles so I just discarded it. Last three singles before that averaged about 60k. Definitely a threat.)

 - GReeeeN (Guy group. Their last few singles have sold poorly and are their worst selling singles, despite selling 300k in their past. Their 2011 singles have sold about 20k. Probably not a threat.)

- INFINITE (K-pop group. This is their first official Japanese single. For whatever reason, they will release on Saturday, making it virtually impossible to do any damage for the week of the 16th. Though they might get a daily #1 on that day since everyone else will have had their best selling days earlier in the week.)

- Moe x Kon (Vocaloid duo featuring former Morning Musume member Konno Asami. It's their first single. Not a threat.)

- Not yet (AKB sub-unit. This is their 3rd single - their first two sold 150k. Definitely a threat and will be in the running for #1.)

- Sexy Zone (A new Johnny's group. This is their debut so no sales info. They were on Music Station today and will sell well just because they are associated with Johnny's. Definitely a threat and will be in the running for #1.)

- Toshihiko Tahara (An old guy. Former Johnny's soloist. This single is apparently to celebrate him turning 50 this year. He's released a ton of singles over the years (including one called Dangan Love which made me lol at little) and I'm not sure whether or not to consider him a threat. Put this one in the maybe column.)

And on the subject of Oricon, the Ninki ranking for next week is out (the Ninki ranking is a poll by Oricon asking its readers which single they would buy. It's not official sales, but it can show what Japan thinks about the upcoming singles):

01 229.70 Sexy Zone - Sexy Zone
02 150.90 Not yet - Pera Pera Perao
03 77.80 GLAY - My Private "Jealousy"
04 74.50 Mobekimasu - Busu ni Naranai Tetsugaku
05 66.00 Acid Black Cherry - Chou
06 55.40 AAA - Charge & Go!
07 51.90 2NE1 - GO AWAY
09 32.90 INFINITE - BTD
10 31.90 GReeeeN - Koibumi ~Love Letter~

(Romaji from aramatheydidnt)

That's a pretty high ranking for Mobekimasu; Aichan's graduation single was less than 60 if I recall correctly. With all of the promotion and Japan apparently liking this single, Busu ni Naranai Tetsugaku could very well sell 60-70k. Because of the new Johnny's group and the AKB sub-unit, #1 is not possible, but #3 is wide open. Mobekimasu will probably have to sell at least 60k to do it, but we can beat GLAY. My guess is that Sexy Zone takes #1 and sells 300k, Not yet gets #2 and sells 230k, Mobekimasu #3 and sells 65k, GLAY #4, and either 2NE1 or ABC getting #5. Tune in next week to find out the real ranking~


  1. After looking at Berikyuu standings right now... it is going at a 20k pace...

    Not saying that Mobekimasu will do THAT bad but it tells us that the groups being together won't boost sells that much. I will say 50k range (around MM sales).

  2. NINKI ranking for Berikyuu was 35.6

    For Ai's farewell single it was 56.8

    For Only You it was 50.7

    So I think this single will do quite well for an H!P release.

  3. 2NE1 is pretty popular in Japan, one of the more popular debuting K-Pop groups, they will probably pose a threat. I'm hoping both Mobekimasu and 2NE1 will do good, so I can't really say who I hope will place higher on this. I just hope they place high with this heavy competition.

  4. Not yet poses a big threat in the idol side. Lately Akb48 groups have been high in the charts and the compitation is big, but hopefully hp pulls though.

  5. GAMBATTE H!P wishing the best!!! GO TO #1!!!

  6. I'm interested to see how well 2NE1 will do.

  7. sorry off-topic,but no more HPT subs?T_T

  8. Why are there no Hello!Pro Time subs anymore? 4 episodes have been released since the last subbed episode. Could you possible tell us when the HPT subbes will be back up and running.
    Thanks. :)

  9. Anon-

    Most of these subbers are students and have exams and other real-life issues to deal with. They also get no financial reward for what they do. I'm just grateful that we're getting subbed HPT shows (and other recent content to boot) on a semi-regular basis. This rarely happens, so enjoy it while it lasts.

  10. I'm doubtful H!P will get #1, but I'm pretty sure they'll do pretty well! =D Thanks for writing up this article!

  11. @Roddy Reta:

    And doing two majors is not helping out the cause too ^^

    But yea, have midterms and stuff and I need a good mark. I need it for Japan next year so gotta "work" harder lol

  12. I bought a copy = it will sell great ^__~

  13. I'm really hoping for the best for Mobekimasu, but I honestly don't see them selling more than Glay. Even if 2NE1 is gaining popularity in Japan, I think they can definitely beat them. But not Glay and definitely not any groups or artists that have anything to do with the 48 groups. Here's hoping all their promotion changes that and at least gets them somewhere in the top 5.

  14. Honestly, 2NE1 is a threat. Considering America and Korea have been waiting for their Japanese Debut, and that Go Away is one of their best selling songs, they pose a HUGE threat to mobekimasu. They are looking at #1-#3.

  15. ^ Not quite. I didn't expect them to do this badly, but 2NE1 debuted at 9 and probably sold 10k or less in their first day. They have no chance at even the top 5 unless they have a late surge the rest of the week.

  16. so how much sales did they have on their first day?

  17. About 19,000. You can follow me on Twitter to get daily updates on their ranking and sales.

  18. Based on the first 4 days of sales, I think we're looking at first week sales of around 40K.

    Whether this is good or bad depends on your initial expectations. I know some people were expecting huge sales (70K+), but I really wasn't (H!P All Stars sold 45K its first week).

    This is essentially a debut single by a new group and I think the sales are a good start. Hopefully H!P can build on this debut and increase sales with each successive release (I'd really like to see Mobekimasu release 3-4 singles a year myself).