Yuuka's really leaving, isn't she?

I've had a night's rest and thought about yesterday's news and I think it hurts more today than it did yesterday. This is one of the longest posts I've ever made, so brace yourselves.

Normally right now is the time where I start going through the conspiracy theories on why they probably aren't true, but this time I think it's pretty obvious. A High School age girl that wants to go to university? How rare. /sarcasm

You can talk about how the new members being added and how Saki leaving had an effect on her (which I'm sure they did) all you want, but as the primary reason for her leaving? That just sounds ludicrous to me, especially if you are to believe what Tsunku said, "Even though she's been a member from the beginning, she expressed her will to concentrate on getting in to a university." (Thanks to sa1234 for the translation) I refuse to believe that Yuuka would give up everything she's worked for over a change in the group's operations.

So, instead of getting hyped on theories that barely have a leg to stand on, I want to look at what we do know. The first being that it was Yuuka's decision. We don't have a direct, clear cut statement from her saying those exact words, but just reading either of the translations of Yuuka's comment and blog post should point you in that direction. We also know that S/mileage "will continue to evolve with changes to it's members just like Morning Musume." (from the sa1234 translation above) And finally, we know that she's been thinking about this for a while. "I’ve been really concerned about not being able to do both work and school since I’ve begun high school." (TMKR and blog! project) That is quite a lot to digest in one paragraph, so let's take it one thing at a time.



Yuuka decided it herself, eh? Out of all of the possible reasons for a graduation, I think that leaving on one's own will, without a scandal is the most honorable. If one of your friends told you that they wanted to better their life and do something that they truly wanted to do, you'd be happy, right? There's certainly nothing wrong with that for normal people. However, Yuuka isn't normal; she's an idol - a public figure of admiration. Of worship even. In the post where I broke the news, Hime Ku-chan left a comment saying "I understand what people are saying but I feel we are being a little selfish." I agree with that, but I think it's a two way street here.

Yuuka is also being selfish by leaving behind a group that was pretty obviously (in my mind at least) being pushed as H!P's second flagship (or whatever you want to call them) group. UFA always promotes their new artists well by getting them on various TV shows and magazines, but then usually lets them fend for themselves after the first year or so. Whether it was due to the fact that they knew Saki was leaving is debatable, but S/mileage, even through their second year of being a group, has had pretty solid promotion, especially compared to their Berikyuu senpai who have been official groups for much, much longer (C-ute for example hadn't performed a single live on any TV program of note since Campus Life on Music Japan until the recent Berikyuu single. All four of S/mileage singles in 2011 were performed on at least one TV of note).

But, selfishness aside, that doesn't mean that I'm blaming Yuuka or saying that she's wrong to make this decision. Again, it's her life and she is welcome to do whatever she wants with it. It's just that by being a public figure (to be more specific - an idol, whose charm is being able to get to know them and see them up and close frequently, as seem by release events, FC events, handshake events, etc), her decisions impact more than just herself. She's a front girl and a popular member not just in S/mileage, but in Hello! Project as a whole. Not only was she the first S/mileage member to get a photobook, but she also got one before two of her C-ute senpai, Chisato and Saki.

If Ogawa Saki were still in the group, Yuuka's leaving would have a major impact. But as we know, Saki left a mere few months ago. I can only imagine the actual impact that this will have on S/mileage after what they've been through in the latter part of 2011. With Yuuka's impending graduation in December, S/mileage will have lost 1/3rd of its members in less than a year (we can't forget about Kosuga). The last time something like that happened? The EriJunLin graduation in December of 2010. Morning Musume was able to survive because of its tradition - members come and go and new ones are added to carry on the legacy. If S/mileage truly was being groomed to be H!P's #2, then there really isn't much choice but to follow Morning Musume's tradition, which brings me to the quote above.

"S/mileage will continue to evolve with changes to it's members just like Morning Musume."

Assuming the translation is correct (and from what I can tell, it is), then what one Anon feared in other post's comments section will probably come true, "I just hope to God that S/mileage doesn't get a 3rd gen. Adding 2nd gen was bad enough."

But, is the possibility of a 3rd gen really such a bad idea? I'm sure S/mileage purists will all yell "No!" to the idea of another audition, but it all depends on what you want from S/mileage. Berikyuu have managed to stay around for a long time, fighting through quite a few changes (mostly on the C-ute side, obviously) without any additional auditions, but I think that they are the exception rather than the rule. There is definitely a shelf-life for idols and once a girl or group reaches that peak, the odds are overwhelmingly against them to survive. Scandals and graduations both make survival even harder than it already is in the crowded idol environment of today. With auditions and new faces being added, this would effectively increase S/mileage's shelf-life tenfold. Though, at what cost? Again, it depends on what you want from the group. If DAWA and Kanon both stick it out and continue on and the group has no more changes, there will be a point in time when the group has to end. Auditions are the natural cure to that inevitable ailment that effects all idols in one point in time in their career. The question is, would new girls be able to carry on the spirit and the overall feel to the mini-skirt, hyper, happy-go-lucky group?

Moving on to Yuuka's official reason for leaving - she wants to properly study at a university. She's at that age and time in her life when it's time to make the leap to move away from your comfort zone and pick out a university to study at. Each person's reason for making that leap is different. For most, it's to study to pick up a career. Others see it as a necessity to enter the workforce. Or maybe it's an entirely different reason altogether. The common denominator here is the betterment of one's life. Very few people go to college just because; more often then not, there is a reason fueling the want to move on with one's life. The real question here is why? If Yuuka is doing what she loves, then why is there a need to go to university when you're already living your dream?

To answer that, let's go back to what I said one paragraph ago. It's virtually impossible to be an idol forever. It's just an unfortunate fact of the business. That is why graduations are necessary. Part of me wishes that Yuuka would be sticking around longer, but then I remembered that she's been a part of Hello! Project just as long as Berikyuu (just as an Egg for most of that time). That's the reason why I'm torn.

7 years is a heck of a long time to be in the idol business. But still, the selfish part of me can't help but wish she wasn't leaving. Although I cried watching Aichan's graduation concert, this upcoming graduation seems even sadder to me because once 2012 hits, there is a good chance that we won't ever see Yuuka again, barring any stalker photos or some sort of a comeback years later (fingers crossed). As fans, we get so attached to these girls because they literally have a camera shoved in their face from the time they get to work until the time they leave work (and in some cases beyond that - i.e. stalker photos and self-shots for their blog, etc). But, for many idols her age, it's that exact reason why the choice is made. I've said it before, but being an idol is tough. Privacy is not something that any of them can say that they have anymore. For that reason, I can't be too hard on the girl for wanting to try and be normal again and wanting to do something else for a change.

Though I'm sure some people may wonder why her wanting to go to university when others have successfully did both in the past (I believe that Momoko is an example, but I'm not 100% sure) is the sole reason for her leaving. I do wish that Yuuka would have at least given it a shot first and then if she found that she couldn't handle juggling college and work, make the decision to leave, but let's not forget that Yuuka isn't Momoko. She's Yuuka and only Yuuka knows Yuuka's limits. "I’ve been really concerned about not being able to do both work and school since I’ve begun high school." (from TMKR and blog! project) If she had troubles in High School, then she's guaranteed to have even more trouble trying to juggle university and work, especially if S/mileage's promotional blitz continues in the future.

Yuuka made a very bold decision that may very well prove to benefit her in the long run, but that doesn't make the upcoming damage any lighter. I'm extremely worried about S/mileage after her graduation, even with the new members and possible new auditions on the horizon. This isn't the golden era, nor are we AKB48; we can't just plug in new girls and everything will be alright. Will S/mileage survive this? Definitely. Survival isn't what I'm worried about -- as long as UFA continues to give these girls work, they'll survive. There will always be the core wota fanbase that supports them no matter what. However, surviving and succeeding are two completely different things.

S/mileage has had success in the past, occasionally selling better than their senpai not named Morning Musume. I just hope that, going forward past this period of instability for them, S/mileage will do more than just survive. I hope that DAWA pulls her group together, picks them up, and helps them find success again. I hope that Tsunku finds the song writing magic that he did with their first few singles. I hope that the promotion and the positive spotlight continues to shine on S/mileage. DAWA, Kanon, and the other two founding members of S/mileage worked too hard to debut to just give up now.

When Mikan released and the official sales figures were known, people said that Morning Musume was done - that they were on the road to disbanding. Then Resonant Blue came out and nearly doubled Mikan's first week. C-ute lost Megumi, one of their early front girls, then years later lost Kanna and Erika in the same year. People wondered if C-ute could make it as such a small group and yet it's been more than two years since then and their overall sales have been incredibly stable. I have faith in S/mileage and I know that they too can bounce back from 2011 and make 2012 more memorable for all the right reasons.

Goodbye Yuuka! I wish you the best of luck with your studies.

tl;dr: I don't think any of the conspiracy theories are true this time around. It's normal for a girl her age to want to go to university. I wish that she'd wait to see for sure if she could handle the pressure or not, but it's her decision. She is being a bit selfish with her decision, but so are we (the fans) by wanting her to spend a decade of her life in a dead-end career. S/mileage has a tough road ahead of them now, but I believe in them.