Do foreign fans care too much about sales?

It's been a while since I last wrote a huge essay article hasn't it? I do like writing posts like these, but they not only take the longest to write, but also to fact-check (to make sure I'm not randomly making things up). That's why I usually only make these in response to something (i.e. graduations, scandals, etc) and that is why they usually seem like rants. This post is no different. I originally started writing it sometime in mid-2011, but put it on hiatus and it just sat there... until now.

First let me set the stage by explaining why I'm even bothering to write about this topic. Whenever a new Hello! Project single is released (or even when they are first announced, in some cases), it is inevitable that fans (do note that from here on out, when I refer to "fans", I speak of the English speaking foreign community and not anyone else) argue over sales figures. How much it will sell, whether or not it deserves to sell a lot, and complaints on disappointing sales are just a few topics that are rehashed every few months. In this post, I will take a look at the ongoing question that frequents the foreign community - do idol sales (especially in the context of Hello! Project) really matter?

Before I get into the heart of that question, I think that it is important to talk about Oricon and their CD ranking charts. Every week (starting on Wednesday, as that is when new CD releases typically go on sale in Japan), Oricon updates their website to reflect that particular day's sales. The artist who sold the most each day is ranked as #1 and whoever sells the most within any given week is awarded the highly sought after weekly #1 ranking. Seems fair right? Well, not quite.

"Normal" artists (i.e. non-idols) have a bit of an advantage over Hello! Project and other idol groups because in 2009, Oricon started counting only 30% of CDs sold at events. So how does this effect idols more than other artists?

Events (where fans can go to see the new single sung live, shake the idols' hands, and possibly win a prize like a signed poster) are a very large part of an idol's routine. For Hello! Project at least, you can expect an event of some kind for just about every single that is released (and in some cases, multiple events - see Busu ni Naranai Tetsugaku for an extreme example, where the whole company traveled across Japan to hold multiple release events).

Going back to Oricon's 2009 rule change for a minute, it simply means that if an idol group sells 10,000 copies of the single at their event, only 3,000 will be counted towards the Oricon charts. I told you it wasn't very fair.

On the subject of sales not being counted, I should also quickly note that not all stores are recognized by Oricon as official vendors. What this means is that you could buy a copy (or 100 copies if you're rich/crazy/awesome) of a new release and not have any of those purchases count towards the charts. Although I do believe that this is rare (all major Japanese stores count towards the charts, as does a lot of online stores), still, it's copies not being counted. (In case you're concerned, the four major websites that sells and ships idol CDs worldwide - CDJapan, Amazon Japan, HMV Japan, and YesAsia - all count toward the Oricon charts.)

The thing is, some idol groups like AKB48 have overcame those handicaps and have gone on to break Japanese music records. So then I return to my original question - does sales really matter for idols?

As usual, I will take a stance somewhere in the middle and say both yes and no. Of course they matter. You'd be hard pressed to find a company willing to put time, money, and effort into a group that sells virtually no copies of singles. And yes of course, selling as high as AKB48 has sold puts you into the Japanese music history books and makes you relevant for almost forever (until some random new group breaks your record).

However, Hello! Project groups do not fit into either of those extreme categories (selling virtually no copies and breaking records). I often see fans complaining about low sales (and I will admit to have expressed my disappointment in the past as well), but I think that there is a skewed notion of what "low sales" really are. It really depends on who and/or what you compare them to. Compare Morning Musume to AKB48 and of course sales will seem low, but the reality is that AKB48 (and any Japanese artist - especially of the idol variety - who consistently sells hundreds of thousands of copies) are in the minority.

In 2011, only 75 singles sold 100,000 copies (or more). That's out of the thousands of singles released throughout Japan last year. On average, about 25 different singles release every week, which means that those elite artists represented less than 1% of the total singles released in Japan in 2011. (For those curious as to how I came up with those numbers, I checked CDJapan's new release calendar and did a rough count of the number of singles released per week for two months and used that data to come up with about 25 new single releases per week. It's not 100% accurate, but at least gives a general idea.)

What I'm trying to say is that only a small percentage of artists release singles that have extremely high sales while the rest of Japan can only dream of reaching that mark. There are so many more artists that sells less than 100k copies than there are those that actually does sell 100k. Because we don't live in Japan, foreign fans tend to only know about (or at least pay attention to) the popular artists because, well, they're popular. They are on TV shows, radio shows, news programs, etc a lot and thus, the average foreign fan knows them much more than a random indie artist, for example.

Yes, there are artists who sells a rather large amount of copies - I don't discount that - but I think we can all agree that popularity does not equal enjoyability. Many of the top selling songs are great, yes (that's why they are the top selling singles after all), but there are just as many songs at the top of the Oricon charts that aren't as great. Take a look at the top 100 selling singles of 2011 and you're bound to find songs that you don't care for.

To be honest, whenever I see someone complain about Hello! Project's sales being low, I can't help but laugh. C-ute selling 20,000 total copies of Sekai Ichi Happy na Onna no ko is only low if you compare it one of those 100,000+ sellers. In reality, it could be much, much worse. Take a look at Kago Ai's non-Hello! Project single, no hesitAtion. It debuted at #26 (H!P singles almost always make the top 10 and usually, the top 5 on their first day) and sold 1,700 copies not in one day, but total. And I'm not trying to pick on Kago; there are artists who don't even break the 1,000 copies mark. So, instead of complaining about low sales, I prefer to be grateful that Hello! Project has a core fanbase that supports the girls through just about anything.

Complaining aside, there is another part of the "low sales argument" that I would like to address. Instead of bashing a group for not selling a large number of copies, there are fans that aren't happy with their favorite groups' sales simply because they are scared for their longevity. The thought process often is that if their favorite group constantly sells a low amount then that group will be disbanded. I can't blame anyone for worrying about their favorite group, but again, I have to elaborate on what I consider low sales.

Let's take a look at the case of Melon Kinebi. For 5 years (2004-2009), all of their singles sold 10,000 copies or less (averaging about 2000 copies sold in 2009). Melon Kinebi was a part of Hello! Project for 9 years and even during Hello! Project's dominant years, sold basically what Berryz and C-ute are selling now and yet they were fine. I can't speak for other companies, but UFA/H!P doesn't seem to mind all that much. To explain why, you have to realize that single (and album) sales is not the only way UFA makes money from Hello! Project.

As H!P fans, we may think it is normal and even take it for granted, but all of the activities that the girls take part in and all of the random merchandise that is sold is not the normal fare for non-idol (and to an extent, non Hello! Project) groups. A standard Hello! Project group's year (let's say C-ute to keep things simple) looks like this: 4 full concert tours (H!P Winter, C-ute Spring, H!P Summer, C-ute Fall), 4 singles (and release events), multiple fanclub events, a couple photobooks (and solo DVDs), possibly an album, Single Vs, photosets, towels, and many other things.

It's true that Hello! Project acts don't sell hundreds of thousands of copies of their singles, but when you add all of the revenue generated from the things above, I doubt they are exactly hurting for cash. This doesn't mean that your favorite group is completely safe (I don't think anyone knows what goes through Tsunku and UFA's bosses heads except the guys themselves), but sales probably won't be the reason for disbanding.

When I began this long post I proposed two questions: do foreign fans care too much about sales? And if so, do idol groups' sales even matter? In my opinion, I do think that the majority of the foreign fan population cares a little too much about how well or badly whatever group they happen to favor. It can get annoying especially when the same thing happens ad nauseam, but since a lot of it stems from simply being unaware of the facts, I can't blame fans too much. On the subject of idol sales, yes they definitely matter - just not as much as some fans would lead you to believe. Idol companies are businesses and the goal of any good business is to make as high of a profit as possible and UFA is no different. However, when you combine CD sales, concert sales, events, and everything in between, the company makes a lot more more than their single sales would indicate.

tl;dr: yes